Abstract:

                             Worldwide climatic parameter characteristics are influenced due to Climatic variations .Investigations have been carried out by climatologists in order to find a possible relation of climate change with anthropogenic behavior by studying trends in different climatic parameters. However, the changes are not in same pattern for all the regions especially in India due to localized intensity and must be quantified locally to manage the natural resources. Temperature and Precipitation are the most important components of climatic parameter, has been widely measured as a starting point towards the apprehension of climate changes courses. Aim of the study is to find the trend in maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation using non-parametric methods (i.e. the Mann–Kendall and Sen’s T tests) in the district of Saharanpur. It is facing adverse effects of less rainfall almost every year, with a notable change in the pre monsoon and post-monsoon temperatures. This is an effort to analyse one of the most important climatic variable i.e. average temperature, for analyzing the temperature trend in the area. Monthly data of 110 years from 1907 to 2016 has been processed in the study in order to find out the monthly variability of average temperature and precipitation  for which Mann-Kendall (MK) Test has been used together with the Sen‘s Slope Estimator for the determination of trend and slope magnitude. Monthly average temperature trend has been identified here to achieve the objective which has been shown with 110 years of data. There are rising rates of average temperature in some months and decreasing trend in some other months , The magnitudes of trend in precipitation is also obtained by these statistical tests suggesting overall significant changes in the area.

Keywords: Air temperature, non-parametric tests, trend analysis, auto correlation, MK and Sen’s tests.